BY OWAIN GULLAM
If 2020 couldn’t be more confusing, the position of ‘Leader of the Free World’ is up for grabs and the race to take it has been hectic to say the least.
Today, on the last day of campaigning and voting, America will choose the President of the United States.
Whilst we’ve all been watching, there is a lot we might not understand, which isn’t helpful considering the anticipation big events can bring. This aims to be a one-stop-shop to quell any immediate questions.
The Polls Get it Wrong
The biggest thing we’ll see from mainstream news outlets leading up to the time polls will close is that Biden has been leading by 8+ points with strong consistency.
It is true that these polls are strong for Biden, and that any candidate would do well to have these numbers. It is yet to be seen if they will hold up. Clinton had a 3 point lead on Trump in most polls in 2016, and that didn’t end in the way that was largely expected.
The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so in a worst case Biden still outclasses Trump nationally. This doesn’t answer for the way US elections work, with the Electoral College system being unique to the country.
The Electoral College
The Founding Fathers when writing the constitution were arguably sceptical of democracy. This scepticism led to the creation of the electoral college, which is a barrier between voters and the presidency. The electoral college can make the election unrepresentative.
The way it works is that every state has a set number of electoral college votes depending on the number of people who can vote in the state. Currently, each electoral college vote represents 711,000 individuals. Each state also has two senators so calculating the number of electoral college votes that each state gets takes the population of a state/711,000 + 2.
Firstly, the electoral college can disagree with the voters, and elect another president if they wish. They can do this for any reason, such as concerns over national security, for instance.
Secondly, the number of electors is determined by how many representatives each state has, some states’ votes count more. If a candidate has the majority of votes in key states but not overall, they can win the presidency without the popular vote. Trump won in 2016 when more people voted for Hillary, because he won key states.
Additionally, the system of each state having a different number of electors means that some states need a lot more campaigning than others. This means that some states are ignored. All eyes will be on the state of Florida, a ‘Swing State’, which could go either way.
Each election has it’s own twist, whether that be the result or getting to the result. Partisan recounts ordered by courts, voter suppression, and voter intimidation are all concepts that are being floated as problems this year. The electoral college is the reason every fight is valuable to the democrats if there’s hope of winning.
The electoral college will be talked about a lot, and will determine what “paths to the White House” each candidate has.
Results Night
Polls close at 11pm GMT, with the first results taking longer than normal. But there will be predictions and estimates flying around, with some networks calling results. Candidates might even weigh in and claim victory in certain states, if not the whole election.
The results will be confusing. Alongside the Presidential race there will be Senate and House of Representative races to make up Congress, as well as races for city councils, state legislatures and governorships.
To make sense of it all, from 10:30pm the Model U.N. Society, joined by others, will be watching the results together. Students are more than welcome to join where there’ll be chats and discussions about what it means, what people think and maybe even pondering what the final result will be.
Model U.N. Soc is inviting you to a Zoom call.
Topic: US Election Watch
Time: 10:30pm-Late
https://plymouth.zoom.us/j/91735118543?pwd=S3FGOFZmNW5RUVFkRmUxc2czSTM4QT09
Meeting ID: 917 3511 8543
Passcode: 989837
Model U.N. Society
States to Watch
Results night will not necessarily reap the biggest rewards immediately for either side.
Florida and North Carolina are expected to count their early votes first, which are likely to lean to Biden. This will be encouraging, but there’ll be a long few days ahead. Florida is a crucial state to both parties with 29 electoral votes. (Bush winning in 2000 depended on Florida’s votes.)
Georgia has an interesting Senate race where polls close at the same time. The tight Senate races could end in neither front running candidate reaching 50% (due to third parties). It is likely a run-off election would have to take place on January 5th, and could potentially have baring on the presidential race, but we’ll soon see.
Other key states to watch include Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which saw a combined 107,000 votes decide 2016.
However this year there is a unique twist which has been added to the already complicated system. The Covid pandemic has meant that record numbers of voters are postal voters. This means that it could take days for the result of some States to come in. Nonetheless, it will be an interesting aspect for the analysts, although initially misleading for the general public.
What Next? – The Following Days
The results may take a while, possibly days, much longer than we’re ordinarily used to. We are certain that the Democrats are adamant that all the votes will count, despite the Supreme Court sticking to deadlines on when votes can be accepted and when they can be counted.
We are almost certain that there will be a winner, although that might take a while to be declared. (However, there is a 1% chance that there is a tie.)
The Outcome
Whatever happens, it’s always important to oppose those you disagree with with respect and passion, not anger.